Last month, I posted a number of anticipated marathon finish times in my Guestimate article. I found the calculators on a number of different websites. I’ve since completed a marathon and found that several of the calculations were close to my actual time.
In December, I ran the Honolulu Marathon, my first marathon in three years. There were several factors that would have an impact on pace and finish time. Those include climate, temperature and humidity higher than most marathons and, whether it is a hilly course. The Honolulu Marathon is not a particularly hilly course, but it is one of the warmest and most humid marathons I have run. There is a climb around mile 7 and again at around mile 24 & 25. With those exceptions, it is primarily a flat and rolling course. More details on all that in my next post, but for now let’s revisit those guestimates of finish time.
My marathon time at the Honolulu Marathon was 5:10:21.
The closest guestimate was the Runner’s World calculator at 5:03:55.
Second closest guestimate was a near tie between the calculation from the Fivethirtyeight Project at 5:00:15 and Fetcheveryone at 5:20:46
So, are the online calculators beneficial? For me, yes. I find them particularly beneficial when I haven’t raced a specific distance for awhile, as is the case with the marathon. I also find myself being more aware of what shorter race results reflect and think through adjustments to my training.
But onward, I’ll post a full race review next week then move on to find a few 5k & 10K races in the early Spring.
I was supposed to finish nYC in 4:15 but my guess was 5:30. I finished in 5:29. I was closer .
You clearly know yourself and how you would deal with all the specifics that makes NYC NYC. I loved that race but there is so much that makes it different than others. See you out there …….